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Are you just getting started? Download the beginners’ guide for FX traders.If the exchange rate climbs higher and breach this ceiling, bullish momentum could accelerate, setting the stage for a retest of this year’s high.
If these technical barriers are taken out, trendline support near 1.2550 will come into focus.Īlternatively, if buyers resurface and regain control of the market, resistance stands at 1.2878, last Thursday’s swing high. If the pair manages to trade below this level decisively in the coming sessions, the next technical support lies at 1.2635 and then at 1.2600, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last year's June/December rally. This scenario may cause the market to price in four additional hikes for 2022 with more conviction, which would be positive for the Canadian dollar.Īfter reaching a two-month high of 1.2878, USD/CAD has reversed lower, retreating towards its 50-day simple moving around the 1.2700 handle. The bank is also likely to reiterate that economic slack has been absorbed and that the trajectory of consumer prices is skewed to the upside on account of supply chain snugs and rising energy costs, a message that could reinforce the case for a tighter policy stance. The move has been discounted and is fully priced in the curve, so it will be a non-event in and of itself, so traders should focus on forward guidance and the overall tone to determine whether the tightening cycle will be aggressive or shallow this year.īoC may appear somewhat cautious in light of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, but the institution will not pivot or panic, as the ongoing military conflict is not expected to have a major effect on the global recovery.
Investors expect policymakers to raise the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% to counter red-hot inflation, which reached a thirty-year high of 5.1% y/y in January, well above the target range of 1% to 3%. USD/CAD is virtually flat on Tuesday, moving between small gains and losses around the 1.2700 psychological level amid market angst ahead of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy announcement due tomorrow. Most read: Oil Breaks Out to Fresh Highs as Commodities Remain Bid